This is the final team preview of MMB’s American League East and it will feature the Toronto Blue Jays. For the other previews already completed check out these: Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. The final post in this series which is forthcoming in the next couple of days will rank the ALE and make some predictions over how we are likely to see the ALE play out in 2014.
Toronto Blue Jays – 2013 Stat Line: Record 75-87 / Pyth 75-87 / RS 688 / RA 744
Major Acquisitions:
A.J. Burnett – Signed a 3-year contract worth a total of $23,000,000
Edwin Jackson –Signed a 3-year contract worth a total of $10,500,00
Major Departures:
At the outset of the 2013 season the Jays were picked by many analysts to not only win the ALE, but contend for the World Series. Given the lofty expectations, the Jays 75-87 record which was good for a 4th place finish in the ALE was nothing short of a disaster for the Jays who traded a number of top prospects to put what they thought was a competitive team on the field in 2013.
The 2013 edition of the Jays were supposed to have a great starting rotation fronted by RA Dickey and Josh Johnson. Indeed, Dickey and Johnson were great for the Jays as they posted 3.08 and 3.83 ERA’s respectively. The problem for the Blue Jays was the giant black hole they had behind them. Of the remaining pitchers who started 10 or more games for the Jays only Brett Cecil posted an ERA under 5 with an ERA of 4.2. The combination of Esmil Rogers (7.07), Ricky Romero (5.21), and JA Happ (5.35) were nothing short of awful the Jays. The Jays bullpen in 2014 was not much better, behind Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos the pen left much to be desired. Over the offseason, the Jays lost Josh Johnson but signed AJ Burnett and Edwin Jackson. These moves gives the Jays more depth but neither Burnett or Jackson are likely to be as good as Johnson was so these moves are unlikely to dramatically improve the Jays pitching numbers in 2014.
On the offensive side, the Jays were good at one thing in 2013 hitting home runs. The Jays hit the third most home runs in the AL in 2013 (177), but only managed to finish 11th in runs scored (688). The Jays biggest problem was that there was no one on base for all their home runs. The teams OBP was 14th in the AL at .309, well below the league average and far below the league leaders. The Jays have some great hitters on their team in Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Reyes, but behind these elite hitters, the Jays have a lot of average to below average hitters in their lineup who are not good at getting on base. Perhaps if their new leadoff hitter, prospect Anothony Gose can really get going and get on base at a high clip the Jays the Jays will be able to score more runs in 2014 but given the lack of any offensive upgrades for the Jays it is hard to see them turning around their fortunes enough to be a contender.
In 2013 the Jays were picked to contend for the world series but instead finished 4th in the division. The Jays were certainly a little unlucky in 2013 with some poor performances from key players who can be expected to rebound in 2014, but at a general level the Jays were a sub .500 team and played like a sub .500 team. They performed exactly as their Pythagorean expectation predicted. The Jays have a line-up that boosts a number of perennial all-stars, however, many of these players are surrounded by subpar players and the result in 2014, just like it was in 2013 is a team that on the whole simply does no have enough talent to compete in the difficult ALE. In any other division the Jays might be considered a contender, but in the ALE, it is hard to see them improving enough to be in it come September.