Noah’s Notes on MMB, vol. 2: Race to the Playoffs

Miami, Boston, Leave East in Dust

The leaders of the NL and AL East divisions both appear to be huge favorites to meet up in this year’s Fall Classic. the Miami Marlins are lead by brand-name stars such as Giancarlo Stanton, Chase Headley, and Jose Fernandez, but has had breakout performances from pitchers such as Lance Lynn, Henderson Alverez, and nearly every pitcher in the bullpen, due in part to backing from the club’s top-notch defense. SP James Tallion was recently called up from AAA, and should provide a boost to the Marlin’s pitching, as if they needed one.

Boston’s team is stacked from top to bottom–mostly with an influx of young talent. The addition of 1B Prince Fielder was a big one, and despite some weak spots in the rotation, this team could slug themselves all the way through October. Both team currently sit at 72-43, leading their respective leagues in runs scored and either first or second in runs allowed.

Disappointing Season for Division Champs

Last year, the Washington Nationals acquired SP David Price at the trade deadline, pushing the team past Philadelphia and into the playoffs, where’d they’d go on to lift the championship trophy. However, the front office decided to send ace Stephen Strasburg to Seattle for a boatload of prospects, such as Mike Zunino and Taijuan Walker. Although all of the players they received have cracked the MLB roster and appear to be future stars, the trade hasn’t worked out well for either team. Washington finds itself in the cellar of an extremely though NL East Division, and Seattle is sitting eight games under .500.

The Awards

My pick for the NL MVP is my very own, 3B Zack Cox. Cox is arguable the league’s best power hitter, and the only other guy in that discussion is Chicago 1B Anthony Rizzo, who is tied with Cox at 35 home runs for most in the league. Miami third sacker Chase Headley has done a better job of getting on base, but what sets Cox apart from the field is his ability to get on base AND hit for power. He leads the NL in home runs, slugging percentage, OPS, hits, extra base hits, isolated slugging, and total bases, while coming in second in RBIs, wOBA, and wins above replacement (WAR), third in batting average, and fifth in on-base percentage.The only issue with Cox is that his team may not make the playoffs. If the Phillies can grab a wildcard spot, he may just be a lock for MVP.

The NL Cy Young is a very tough award to predict. Miami’s Henderson Alverez and Washington’s Jake Peavey posses top-notch ERA’s, but extremely low BABIP numbers for both suggest that this was likely due to a large element of luck, something that their large FIP>ERA gaps can back up. Another pitcher who could hear his name mentioned is the Giant’s Tim Lincecum. His 3.02 fielding independent pitching (FIP) leads the senior circuit, despite a high ERA due to SF’s god-awful defense. He also is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the league. Mike Fiers of Milwaukee is a decent candidate, leading the NL in WHIP and K/BB, but he too has had the benefit of a low BABIP and plays on a team nowhere near contention. In my opinion, the NL CY Young race, at it’s current state, is too close to call.

Moving on to the American League, the Cy Young is another tough choice. Stephen Strasburg seemed to be running away with the award (and possible even the MVP trophy as well) when was sidelined for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury last month. I think that the award will end up in the hands of Dylan “Easter” Bundy, second in FIP to Stras, fourth in K/9 and K/BB and also playing for a very good team, although it may go to just about anyone else.

There isn’t really much competition for the MVP of the junior circuit, on the other hand. Who else would it be other than young phenom (not Tyler Pastornicky) Mike Trout. Los Angeles has a special player on their hands, as Trout leads the AL in batting average, WAR, and hits, is third in OPS, has stolen 27 bases for 4th best in the league, and also comes in third in wOBA and slugging percentage, all while being one of the league’s elite defenders in center field. Jose Bautista of Toronto is a pure hitter, possibly even better at the plate than Trout, but he has really subtracted from his team with poor defense in right field. At least he’ll get the Silver Slugger!

Finally….My Predictions!

NL East: Miami    NL Central: Chicago   NL West: LA Dodgers    NL Wildcard: San Diego (1), Philadelphia (2) (Yes, I had to).

AL East: Boston    AL Central: Detroit    AL West: LA Angels    AL Wildcard: Tampa Bay (1), Chicago (2)

WC Round: PHI 1, SD 0     TB 1, CHI 0

Divisional Round: MIA 3, PHI 0     LAD 3, CHI 2    BOS 3, TB 2      DET 3, LA 0

LCS Round: MIA 4, LAD 0     DET 4, BOS 3

World Series: MIA 4, DET 2

So yes, I’m picking Miami!

…And that’s all for this edition of Noah’s Notes on MMB, sponsored by MMB Nation. We’ll see you next time, hope you enjoyed the second and long-delayed volume! 🙂 Go Phils!